Analysis

Event size

Operation size, here, is the number of Iran Monitor included fatalities linked to one qualifying operation/event record. It is derived from the event–person links already stored in the live database and is not a stored variable. It is explicitly not a claim about every casualty or death in the corresponding real-world event: it counts only the included fatalities documented in this record.

Live database, data cutoff 26 August 2026. Every figure below is descriptive, with no inferential test, trend claim or causal interpretation. See Analysis overview for scope and limits.

53 qualifying operation/event records have at least one linked included fatality, together representing 114 included fatalities. 34 records (64.2%) are single-person operations — exactly one included fatality is linked to the record — and 19 records (35.8%) are multi-person operations, with two or more linked included fatalities. The mean operation size is 2.2 included fatalities per operation, the median is 1, and the largest record has 14. No event record lacked a valid positive size.

Figure 1. Distribution of operation size by exact number of linked included fatalities. A size of 1 means one included fatality is linked to that operation record, 2 means two, and so on; each bar counts operation records of that exact size. Sizes are reported exactly as derived and are not grouped into bands.

View data table — exact size distribution

Operation records by exact operation size, with the share of the 53 records that have a valid positive size.
Included fatalities per operation	Operation records	Share of records
1	34	64.2%
2	9	17%
3	4	7.5%
4	2	3.8%
5	0	0%
6	0	0%
7	0	0%
8	1	1.9%
9	1	1.9%
10	0	0%
11	1	1.9%
12	0	0%
13	0	0%
14	1	1.9%
All valid records (single 34 · multi 19)	53	100%

Operation size over time

Operation size by broad period. An operation is assigned to the year of its existing chronology reference date (the earliest or reference date already stored for the record); this is a presentation grouping only and is not a new event-level date variable. Broad periods are used because the number of operation records is small, and no annual trend is claimed. No record had an unresolved reference year.
Period	Operation records	Single-person	Multi-person	Multi-person %	Included fatalities	Mean size	Median size	Maximum size
1990–1999	1	1	0	0%	1	1.0	1	1
2000–2009	0	0	0	—	0	—	—	—
2010–2019	3	2	1	33.3%	6	2.0	1	4
2020–2026	49	31	18	36.7%	107	2.2	1	14
All periods	53	34	19	—	114	—	—	—

Descriptive comparison between responsible actors

This is a descriptive comparison only. To avoid counting one operation record more than once, an operation contributes to an actor row only when exactly one distinct derived actor is recorded for it. 2 records with more than one derived actor are excluded from the actor rows, because the database does not record a primary actor. The actor rows therefore do not sum to all operation records. Where a row rests on very few operations the figures are unstable, and no test of difference is performed or implied.

Operation size by responsible actor, restricted to operation records with exactly one distinct derived actor. Sorted by number of operation records, then actor name.
Actor	Operation records	Included fatalities	Single-person	Multi-person	Multi-person %	Mean size	Median size	Maximum size
Israel	37	79	22	15	40.5%	2.1	1	14
United States / Israel	9	16	8	1	11.1%	1.8	1	8
Islamic State / armed opponents	1	1	1	0	0%	1.0	1	1
Syrian actor / exact perpetrator disputed	1	1	1	0	0%	1.0	1	1
Syrian rebel forces / Israel (exact actor disputed)	1	1	1	0	0%	1.0	1	1
Taliban forces	1	1	1	0	0%	1.0	1	1
United States	1	2	0	1	100%	2.0	2	2
Single-actor records	51	101	34	17	—	—	—	—

Largest operations

The five operation records with the most linked included fatalities. Ties are ordered by chronology reference date, then by operation name. The figure is the number of Iran Monitor included fatalities linked to the record, not the total number of deaths in the real-world event.
Operation record	Reference date	Derived actor(s)	Included fatalities
2025 opening strike — senior command IRM-E-0014	2025-06-13	Israel	14
2026 opening strike — senior leadership / intelligence IRM-E-0027	2026-02-28	Israel, United States / Israel	11
2025 opening strike — nuclear scientists IRM-E-0013	2025-06-13	Israel	9
2026 opening-wave senior officials IRM-E-0028	2026-02-28	United States / Israel	8
2010–2012 Iranian scientist assassination campaign IRM-E-0002	2010-01-12	Israel	4